Electrolytic aluminum is aluminum obtained by electrolysis. Modern electrolytic aluminum industry uses the cryolite-alumina molten salt electrolysis method. Molten cryolite is a solvent, alumina is the solute, carbon body is the anode and aluminum solution is the cathode, and electrochemical reactions are carried out at both poles in the electrolyzer at 950°C-970°C by strong direct current.

I. Industrial policy environment

In recent years, the policies related to the electrolytic aluminum industry have been widely introduced. The main content includes strict control of new production capacity, improve the utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, promote the participation of non-ferrous metal enterprises in direct power trading, 2+26" city electrolytic aluminum plant production restrictions" on, promote high strength. Corrosion-resistant aluminum alloy technology research and development, clean up and rectify the electrolytic aluminum industry violations and other projects.

Second, the state of industrial development

(A) Industrial prosperity

The "supply-side" reform led to the disorderly expansion of the electrolytic aluminum industrial capacity was suppressed, and the dual drive of infrastructure and real estate industry provided a strong stimulus from the demand side. since 2016, the economic prosperity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has rebounded significantly, and the industry inventory has gradually decreased and prices have increased.

(II) Industrial supply

1, industrial capacity

According to statistics, as of the end of 2017, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 44.9 million tons / year, which is from 3.9% increase in 2016, an increase of 7.1 percentage points year-on-year, and the lowest growth rate in the last decade. In terms of capacity distribution, Shandong and Xinjiang remain the two most important provinces of electrolytic aluminum in China, with 44% of the total capacity ratio in 2017; Inner Mongolia ranked third in China, and the annual production capacity amounted to 4.91 million tons / you guys accounted for 11% of the total national production capacity.

2, industrial production

2017, the policy city became the biggest factor affecting the company's production and operation. Derek's factors, environmental protection and other policies, for the first time in 2017 in China electrolytic aluminum monthly production rose. at the end of June 2017, the annual production of electrolytic aluminum in China reached an annual high of 38.31 million tons, followed by the closure of a large area of electrolytic aluminum production capacity. As a result, domestic electrolytic aluminum production declined month by month, reaching its lowest level in December.

From January to December, the national output of electrolytic aluminum was 32.27 million 3000 tons, an increase of 2017, with a growth rate of 0.3 percentage points over 2016.

(iii) Industry demand

With the recovery of aluminum exports, domestic demand for electrolytic aluminum in China was generally good in 2017. Especially in the first half of this year, the strong growth of the housing industry, as well as durable goods and packaging industry aluminum consumption is growing steadily. The growth in aluminum consumption has laid an important foundation. It is estimated that in 2017 China's primary aluminum consumption will reach 35.4 million tons, accounting for 7.9% of the increase 2016, down 0.3 percentage points from 2016, while in the market surplus of 1.33 million tons.

From the point of view of consumption sub-sectors, the growth rate of the three major electrolytic aluminum consumption regions of construction, electricity and transportation has slowed down in 2017. According to statistics, in FY2017, the share of electrolytic aluminum consumption in the three major areas of construction, electricity and transportation was 32.1%, 15.2% and 12.4%, respectively, and the share of consumer durables and packaging containers rose to 11.3% and 8.3. %, respectively. The share of exports fell to 11%.

Third, the industry financing demand analysis

The financing needs of the aluminum mining industry are mainly focused on the payment of mining rights and the acquisition of mining equipment. The general settlement methods used by the company include international and domestic letters of credit, bankers' acceptances and bank remittances, and financing methods include bank credit and bond issuance. Waiting.

The financing needs of aluminum smelting and processing companies are mainly focused on upstream raw material purchases and new (expansion) construction projects. The settlement methods used for the purchase of raw materials include international and domestic letters of credit, bankers' acceptances and bank remittances; through bank loans, parent company borrowings, deferred payments from upstream companies, and bond issuance, etc. XPANCE projects usually require government support. Therefore, besides bank loans and bond issuance, government funds are also one of the main sources of funds.

The financing needs of enterprises in the import segment mainly include: import license, import bills, import payment, delivery guarantee, repo-type FFFIT, etc.; export segment includes export billing, export invoice discounting, export payment, FFFIT, export double factoring, internal recourse. Local aggregation, etc.

In recent years, the aluminum industry has been facing increasing pressure on environmental protection. Aluminum enterprises are facing the upgrading of equipment energy saving and environmental protection equipment standards, and companies have environmental protection fund requirements. In addition, in the context of the capacity off, forced by the government and market pressure, private aluminum companies are forced to suspend or close, waiting for restructuring, large companies have the ability to restructure mergers and acquisitions, also have DEM. and provide funds for M&A funds.

Fourth, bank intervention

Due to the impact of the rebound in aluminum prices in 2017, the improvement of industrial operating conditions, as well as the removal of illegal production of electrolytic aluminum, the total capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China will be effectively controlled in 2018, and some compliance production capacity I industrial policy N line is expected in 2018. depending on market conditions, will be gradually introduced.

On the consumption side, China's economy will remain at a critical point of moderate slowdown in growth, continuous structural optimization and improve the quality of growth 2018. prudent neutral monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy will again become the mainstay of economic policy. Meanwhile, as supply clears and upstream prices rise cyclically in 2016 and 2017, future price increases will be passed on to downstream users, which will increase cost pressures on the end manufacturing sector. Rising inflation risks will constitute strong domestic demand. It is certainly pressure. In addition, although China's aluminum exports show restorative growth, they are also facing complex overseas political and economic situation and turmoil, which also causes a certain uncertainty, the growth of primary aluminum consumption.

It is expected that the next phase of electrolytic aluminum market supply and demand is basically balanced with a slight surplus. Under the premise of risk control, the electrolytic aluminum industry can be cautiously engaged. It is recommended to focus on the electrolytic aluminum industry in Xinjiang, Yunnan, Qinghai, Guangxi and other western regions.